Analysis of the effect of the pandemic on the time series forecast in the demand for the product manufactured by Shoniz Company in Iran

Hojaghani, Leily; Mirzaee, Ali

Analysis of the effect of the pandemic on the time series forecast in the demand for the product manufactured by Shoniz Company in Iran

Document Type : Scientific research

Authors

leily hojaghani

ali mirzaee

- Department of industrial engineering Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran Islamic Azad University,

Abstract

The emergence of any type of pandemic causes disruption of the economic activity of various businesses and leads to problems in the supply and demand of these industries. In this research, we will analyze the impact of the corona pandemic on the sales of the Shoneys company's product using a time series analysis, using the data of the total monthly sales of a chocolate product from June 2019 to March 2011. In order to predict the future demand of the product, two methods of ARIMA modeling and Monte Carlo simulation have been used. Finally, by comparing the amount of MAPE prediction error obtained from two methods, it was concluded that the prediction using the Monte Carlo simulation method in Crystal Ball software has high accuracy. According to the findings of this study, it is suggested that the managers of Shouniz company, in view of the increase in demand for the product, a long-term strategic plan for the supply of raw materials and the allocation of skilled manpower, increasing the efficiency of the production line, providing transportation facilities, etc. consider

Keywords

demand forecasting

pandemic

time series

Monte Carlo simulation

Subjects