نوع مقاله : علمی پژوهشی
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The emergence of any type of pandemic causes disruption of the economic activity of various businesses and leads to problems in the supply and demand of these industries. In this research, we will analyze the impact of the corona pandemic on the sales of the Shoneys company's product using a time series analysis, using the data of the total monthly sales of a chocolate product from June 2019 to March 2011. In order to predict the future demand of the product, two methods of ARIMA modeling and Monte Carlo simulation have been used. Finally, by comparing the amount of MAPE prediction error obtained from two methods, it was concluded that the prediction using the Monte Carlo simulation method in Crystal Ball software has high accuracy. According to the findings of this study, it is suggested that the managers of Shouniz company, in view of the increase in demand for the product, a long-term strategic plan for the supply of raw materials and the allocation of skilled manpower, increasing the efficiency of the production line, providing transportation facilities, etc. consider
کلیدواژهها English